XRP Faces Downside Risk as Historical Patterns Point to $1.50

XRP-USD -1.58%

XRP slipped back under the $2.20 threshold as a daily death cross renewed selling pressure, setting the token up for a critical support test that may determine whether the broader correction accelerates into December.

News Background

• XRP failed to sustain ETF-driven strength — despite Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ and Grayscale’s GXRP posting three consecutive sessions of net inflows.

• Binance exchange reserves fell to 2.7 billion XRP, the lowest in more than a year, after roughly 300 million XRP left the platform since October.

• This indicates long-term holders and institutional desks continue to accumulate into weakness, but spot demand has not yet offset short-term liquidation flows driven by derivatives unwinding and risk-off sentiment across crypto.

Technical Analysis

• The breakdown from $2.22 to $2.18 confirmed a clean rejection at the $2.23–$2.24 resistance zone, reinforcing a descending channel that has guided XRP’s price for the past two weeks.

• The death cross adds structural weight to this pattern, aligning with a series of lower highs at $2.185, $2.180, and $2.178.

• Momentum readings remain soft. RSI failed to reclaim the midline on every bounce attempt, indicating persistent selling pressure, while MACD continues drifting deeper into negative territory.

• Price remains below all major short-term moving averages, and the slope of the 50-day average is now accelerating downward — a condition that historically reinforces follow-through selling rather than immediate reversals.

• Despite this, on-chain flows show an improving underlying bid: steady ETF inflows and shrinking exchange balances suggest a transition toward mid-term accumulation even as the near-term chart remains decisively bearish.

Price Action Summary

• The token briefly stabilized at $2.17–$2.18 during the final hours as activity thinned out, reflecting a pause in aggressive selling but not a meaningful recovery attempt.

• Overnight price action recovered slightly toward $2.21 before retreating, leaving XRP range-bound but vulnerable.

What Traders Should Know

• XRP now sits directly on top of the $2.17–$2.18 decision zone. Losing this shelf exposes $2.08, followed by the broader $1.90 region highlighted by analysts as the key line separating routine correction from deeper retracement.

• To regain upward momentum, XRP must reclaim $2.20 and then break through $2.23–$2.24 with expanding volume — without both, any bounce remains corrective.

• Historical death-cross behavior suggests downside risk remains elevated until price reclaims the 50-day average. ETF inflows help limit structural damage but cannot override short-term technical weakness on their own.