BYU Enemy Scouting Report: UCF Knights

Game location: LaVell Edwards Stadium/Provo, UT

Game time/channel: Saturday, November 29,

Spread: -17.5 (BYU)

Matchup History: 3-1 (BYU)

The Knights and Cougars have played twice since 2020, including last year in Orlando as Big 12 Conference mates. This will be their first meeting in Provo since 2011, when BYU won 24-17, capped by a kick return touchdown by Cody Hoffman. The two squared off in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl, also won by BYU. The Cougars pounded UCF 37-24 in Orlando last season.

Head Coach: Scott Frost (1st Year, second stint)

2025 Season Thus Far

After an offseason of turmoil, which saw Scott Frost return to the program, the Knights have been up-and-down. UCF opened the season 3-0 including beating up on North Carolina 34-9. They then lost three straight to open Big 12 play. After snapping that streak by beating West Virginia, they lost three straight again. They snapped out of it last week with a win against lowly Oklahoma State. They are 5-6 and must beat BYU in Provo to make a bowl game.

When UCF Has the Ball

UCF quarterback Tayven Jackson is a playmaker but he is also coming off of three interceptions in his last two games. Among 20 qualified quarterbacks in the Big 12, he ranks 18th in turnover worthy play rate. BYU needs to take advantage of UCF’s shaky ball security. BYU’s defense has 15 interceptions, which is eighth-most in the country.

UCF is middle-of-the-pack for most offensive categories. They have a mild balance of passing and running, but lack the true explosive plays. Myles Montgomery is their top rusher at a modest 676 yards. Where they get bogged down is on third downs, where they rank 124th in the FBS in third down conversions. BYU needs to keep that trend going but not allowing UCF to convert third downs on missed assignments or penalties by BYU’s defense.

When BYU Has the Ball

UCF ranks 79th in rush defense in the FBS. BYU should be able to move the ball on the ground and that should be their goal. LJ Martin put together the best game of his BYU career against Cincinnati. He doesn’t need to be a hero against the Knights, but a healthy dose of Martin again should mean good things for the Cougars. To avoid giving him too much of a workload again, BYU should mix in more runs for Bear Bachmeier as well as other backs like Preston Rex and Enoch Nawahine.

UCF has a top 25 passing defense in the country. BYU needs to run the ball to win, but still should challenge this secondary. Bear Bachmeier likely won’t have Chase Roberts, who left the Cincinnati game with injury. Another ground-heavy attack, mixed with some deep shots to Parker Kingston, Carsen Ryan, and Jojo Phillips should be the formula.

How BYU Can Win

This is much like the game against West Virginia earlier in the year. Just avoid boneheaded turnovers and BYU should win. They should be able to control the ground game, as the Cougars own the advantage on both sides of the trenches. A win here means BYU is headed to the Big 12 Championship Game. It’s up to Kalani Sitake and company to keep the team sharp with their eyes on the prize. A loss here would solely be on the team’s lack of focus.

Prediction: BYU 30, UCF 17