David StarnesFri, November 28, 2025 at 8:00 PM UTC·9 min readWelp, last week I got some things right. Totally whiffed on the, “Surely Manny Diaz can’t outcoach Bill Belichick.” Net result: 25-32 rather than 27-21. Moving on. Don’t want to talk about. OK, I lied. Much talk later in the special teams section.
I get long-winded in the unit sections this week, so we’ll skip the preamble. On to the plausible path to victory.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement2025 Season So Far: Edge T.S.O.I.R.North Carolina
Resume
T.S.O.I.R.
4-7
Season Record
6-5
2-5
ACC Record
3-4
93rd
Ranking Average (FEI, SP+, FPI)
60th
97th
Schedule Strength Avg. (FEI, SP+, FPI)
28th
Syracuse 27-10
Most Impressive Win
G. Tech 48-35
Wake Forest 12-28
Ugliest Loss
Miami 7-41
Duke 25-32 (L)
Last Game
FSU 21-11 (W)
Dave Doeren’s squad has a 6-5 record against a schedule rated 28th most difficult in the country. Belichick’s has a 4-7 record against a schedule rated 93rd most difficult. “Who’s had the better season so far,” discussions end there.
When UNC pulled out the eight figure salary for Belichick, one of the operating assumptions, a non-negotiable precondition, was a massive sideline advantage over the likes of Manny Diaz Dave Doeren. T.S.O.I.R.’s team rates “average,” dead middle of the bell curve. That’s a C. Belichick’s ranks in the bottom quartile of the sport despite one of the easiest schedules in the game plus a gargantuan NIL budget. That’s an F.
Nothing would make me happier than Belichick and the Heels upending T.S.O.I.R. Nothing would make me grumpier than Doeren’s guys celebrating an insurmountable lead the entire 4th quarter. If ever Belichick is going to prove he’s still got it, please let it be this game. Hey, that’s almost exactly what you wrote last week about Duke and Diaz! Yep. Still applies. Still waiting for the Super Bowl Ring Man to burst through that wall.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTar Heel Offense vs Blue Devil Defense: Edge T.S.O.I.R.North Carolina Offense
Measure
T.S.O.I.R. Defense
111th
Ranking Average (FEI, SP+, FPI)
79th
118th
Points Per Drive
112th
104th
Drives that end with a TD or FG attempt
123rd
126th
Drives that end in a TD
99th
53rd
Unit Strength of Schedule
29th
14 lost
Turnovers
13 gained
This week’s stat highlight: Unit Strength of Schedule.
The drive data listed above is raw data, unadjusted for opponent strength. Looking at the raw data, UNC appears to have a better defense (see below) than T.S.O.I.R. Look at the unit strength of schedule, though. UNC’s defense has faced a collection of offenses rated 104th in the country in terms of level of difficulty. Doeren’s defense has faced offenses collectively rated 29th.
Imagine one defense played 12 Richmonds and the other played 12 Ohio States. That’s why unit strength of schedule has to be an important factor. The Pack has surrendered a lot of yards and points this season, but they’ve done so to very good offenses, on average.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAgainst the weaker offenses that it’s faced (Virginia Tech, Florida State, East Carolina), the Pack defense didn’t allow many trips into the red zone and had a lot of success the few times those teams got there. UNC has to cash in red zone opportunities when they arise.
Last week, the UNC offense moved when it passed on early downs and mixed in running plays. It stalled when Kitchens reverted to the hat-on-hat running game to set up play-action. This offense can move the ball on State’s defense if Kitchens plays to its strengths rather than trying to force square pegs into round holes.
Tar Heel Defense vs Blue Devil Offense: Edge T.S.O.I.R.North Carolina Defense
Measure
T.S.O.I.R. Offense
91st
Ranking Average (FEI, SP+, FPI)
29th
35th
Points Per Drive
59th
49th
Drives that end with a TD or FG attempt
81st
67th
Drives that end with a TD
39th
104th
Unit Strength of Schedule
17th
12 gained
Turnovers
13 lost
This week’s stat highlight: Ranking Average
The disparity in ranking averages owes much to tempo adjustments as well as opponent strength adjustments. For example, last Saturday, Duke ran seven possessions for the entire game, not including the final sequence of kneel-downs. Last year, Duke had eight possessions in the first half, 13 total for the game. This year’s defense surrendered 352 yards in seven possessions. Last year’s surrendered 394 yards in 13. In total yards, this year’s defense did better. On a per drive and per play basis, last year’s had the better showing.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhy is that relevant? Surrendering 400 yards rushing combined over the last two games is very bad. In the context of low possession games, it’s horrendous. A common rationalization of this year’s UNC defense has been the complaint that the offense exposes it to too many plays. That’s not inaccurate, but that was just as true last year’s defense.
Why do I bring this up? This year’s UNC defense on a per play and per drive basis is no better than last year’s UNC defense. This year’s benefits dramatically from low possession game plans and very weak offensive opponents. The nine sacks against Stanford happened; they were fun. The 70 points to JMU last season also happened, and that was no fun. The total bodies of work, however, are about the same. I’ll also note that these advanced metrics systems exclude garbage time. Much of the TCU, UCF, and Clemson blow out data has been scrubbed from the measured sample.
I’m not down on our defense. The defensive line position coaching has improved dramatically. Bob Diaco’s getting much more out his guys than Tim Cross ever did his. The secondary does a much better job of keeping things in front of them. On a per drive basis, though, last year’s defense was better on 3rd downs, better on 4th downs, and better at keeping opposing teams out of the end zone. Not by huge amounts but by measurable amounts.
TL;DR – If this defense tackles in the run game the way it did against Wake Forest and Duke, it’s going to get run out of the stadium, literally.
Special Teams: PushNorth Carolina
Measure
T.S.O.I.R.
28th (um, nope)
Ranking Average (FEI, SP+, FPI)
104th
50th
Field Goal Efficiency
129th
44th
Covering – Punts – Returning
28th
64th
Returning – Punts – Covering
77th
0
Punts/FGs blocked
1
6
Soul-Crushing Special Teams Errors Last 2 Weeks
0
This week’s stat highlight: Soul-crushing special teams errors.
The Tar Heels carried on paper a special teams edge into the Wake Forest and Duke games. Clean special teams in both of those games likely results in two wins.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementYes, it would have been nice if the offense had found the end zone against Wake Forest. But, if the offense can’t get into the end zone, then special teams really need to protect field goal attempts. Two blocks for Wake Forest in six UNC attempts is very bad. Those blocks dramatically altered strategy for both teams in the second half.
Maybe that stuck in Belichick’s craw, because UNC went for broke to block Duke’s two field goal attempts. The first gave Duke a first down via penalty, effectively a turnover. Duke converted that blunder into a touchdown a play later. The second allowed Duke to easily convert a fake field goal attempt that Duke once again converted into a touchdown a play later. Given that the Duke kicker misses half the time from that range, the calculus of those decisions amounted to this:
Option A: Duke misses both: 0 points (25%)
Option B: Duke misses one, makes one: 3 points (50%)
Option C: Duke makes both: 6 points (25%)
Option D: None of the above. Hand Duke two touchdowns via poor execution and poor awareness
Don’t rush! Rushing doesn’t change the math on making it or missing it. Rushing from the edge has about a 2% success rate relative to blocking a field goal. An edge rush can affect a kicker’s timing, but that’s only a tactical consideration when a guy’s automatic from a distance. This kicker had proven all year he struggles at that distance. The risk far outweighed the reward. The math was available in real-time; this isn’t second-guessing or Sunday morning QB griping.
So, until UNC’s special teams prove to be an asset rather than liability in these rivalry games, I’m going with special teams as a push. State’s field goal kickers haven’t made one from beyond 38 yards all season. If we’re trying to block a 44 yard field goal attempt from the edge, my head might explode.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOdds ReviewVegas has designated UNC a 7.5 point underdog. The total sits at 47.5, which infers a final result around 27/28 to 20. Last week’s game hit the over courtesy to UNC turning a potential six points, maximum, into 15 points for Duke. This week could easily see something similar. Your guess is as good as mine what kind of mood and effort we see from UNC in this game. Lombardi and Belichick have been clear that the roster will turn over dramatically by next season. Bowl eligibility is out the window. Bet at your own risk.
SummaryUNC’s path to a win this week once again requires clean special teams play and no turnovers. We have a huge advantage with Verhoff, who has 20 yards more range than Doeren’s tandem of kickers. UNC’s offense has shown life in spurts against Wake’s defense (which is terrific) and Duke’s defense (which is not terrific). T.S.O.I.R. has been much better as a home team this year, but low possession, grind-it-out games seem to frustrate them and create impatience.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFirst, the defense needs to eliminate the yards after contact that they allowed to Duke and Wake. Second, the defensive line needs to make CJ Bailey uncomfortable. Third, the offense needs to throw on early downs more and worry less about time of possession. Fourth, the offense has had two straight games without a turnover; we need a third. Special teams needs to be clean. All of those together add up to a UNC win, 27-20. But that’s a lot of things that need to go right in a hostile environment for a team that hasn’t had everything go right for them yet.
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