Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos Week 13: Five Questions with Mile High Report

It’s week 13 of the NFL season, and the 3-8 Washington Commanders will be facing a 9-2 Denver Broncos team at home in Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD this Sunday at 8:20 pm ET. After losing 2 of their first 3 games against the Colts and Chargers, the Broncos have gone on to win their last 8 games, despite all but one being within a single score.

On offense, the Broncos are coached by HC (and playcaller) Sean Payton and OC Joe Lombardi. Sean Payton has traditionally run a hybrid West Coast Offense focusing on short and intermediate passes, but is also known for building his offense around the strengths of his QB. In the case of the Broncos with Bo Nix, that has meant adding more RPOs and focusing heavily on screen passes. All this has resulted in an offense that is ranked 17th in passing yards per game and 10th in rushing yards per game. That’s not the whole story though, because the Broncos have been known for a rather lackluster offense in quarters 1-3, but really heating up in the 4th quarter. The Broncos have an amazing +63 point differential in the 4th quarter this year, the best in the NFL. That 4th-quarter differential has been critical, as the Broncos have played nine 1-score games this year, winning 7 and losing 2 (their only losses). It helps that their defense can always keep them in games.

On defense, the Broncos are coached by DC Vance Joseph. Joseph runs a 4-3 front with the 8th-highest blitz rate in the NFL and the 5th-highest rate of man coverage. The Broncos secondary is one of the best in the NFL, able to win in man most of the time, which allows their DC to bring extra players down as blitzers to supplement an already talented front 7. In terms of talented players, the Broncos are headlined by All Pro CB Patrick Surtain II and All Pro pass rusher Nik Bonitto. All of this results in a defense that is ranked 3rd in total yards allowed, 6th in passing yards allowed, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed.

I asked Ian St. Clair of Mile High Report five questions to better understand the state of the Broncos and what to look for in this game.

1) The Broncos offense has seemed to look rough to start many games, but rallies in the 4th quarter. Why do you think the offense has looked somewhat pedestrian in quarters 1-3 and why does it take off in the 4th?

This is the key question when it comes to the Broncos, and seemingly everyone has a different answer. My tinfoil hat theory is that Sean Payton is playing 3D chess with the opposition by presenting the most vanilla and bland offensive game plan he can devise, at least for the first three quarters. Then, in the fourth quarter, he opens up the offense for Bo Nix. It’s not totally crazy, right? In all seriousness, I think it’s a combination of not playing at up-tempo and lack of execution. I’d like to see Payton allow Nix to play up-tempo in the first three quarters and let the offense play as it does in the fourth quarter. I also think that limits the thinking involved, not just for Nix and the offense, but also for Payton.

2) What’s your scouting report on Bo Nix, including his strengths and weaknesses? On a scale of 1-10, what is your confidence level that he’s the long-term franchise guy?

The biggest weakness with Nix right now is consistency in the first three quarters. If he can play as he does in the fourth quarter in the first, second, and third, he’ll take the leap to become an elite starting quarterback. Nix must also improve his consistency on deep balls. His wide receivers don’t do him a lot of favors with drops, but this is another area where Nix can improve. But the biggest strength is that Nix is a winner. He just finds a way, no matter what is happening or the score, to lead the Broncos to victory. Nix is also a great leader. And as good as he is right now, he is currently ninth in total touchdowns by QBs; he can get even better. If Denver improves the offensive weapons Nix has in the offseason, watch out. I’ll bite the bullet and go with 10. I have no doubt that Nix is the long-term franchise quarterback for the Broncos.

3) The Broncos are coming off a bye week, when most teams make adjustments to scheme, playcalling, and/or personnel usage. What adjustments do you think the Broncos should make coming out of their bye?

The biggest factor on defense is that they’ll get key players back from injury, notably the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Pat Surtain II. Arguably, the best defense in the NFL has been without the best cornerback in football since the first half of the Week 8 home game against the Dallas Cowboys. Yet in that time, the defense hasn’t missed a beat. The Broncos curb-stomped the Cowboys, beat the Houston Texans on the road, survived Thursday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders, and got the huge win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Now Denver could get him back for Sunday.

On offense, I just mentioned it, play up-tempo. Nix plays at his best in the fourth quarter, and the Broncos offense plays that style. So do that to start the game and in the first three quarters. Payton and the offense also need to establish and stick with the running game more. Denver has a great offensive line; lean on it and pound the ball. When that happens, it also opens up the offense and Nix to take shots down the field.

4) Who is one Broncos player on offense and one player on defense that Washington fans probably don’t know much about, but should?

On offense, let’s go with rookie receiver Pat Bryant. In the big 22-19 win over Kansas City in Week 11, Bryant had his best game. He finished with five catches for 82 yards and was a key piece of the offense moving the ball. Bryant is also a strong blocker in the running game. Look for Bryant and Nix to build off what they did against the Chiefs this Sunday.

Defensively, let’s roll with cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian. The Broncos cornerback just had his best game of the season against KC. McMillian had two sacks, six tackles, two tackles for loss, two quarterback hits, one pass defended, and an interception. With Surtain possibly coming back, McMillian is another piece in an already very good secondary.

5) How should Washington go about gameplanning this matchup on both sides of the ball?

As with any quarterback, consistent and sustained pressure is pivotal. That also means the defense is controlling the line of scrimmage for the run and the pass. Washington’s defense needs to win the line of scrimmage on defense in order to give Nix happy feet and rush his decision-making. Offensively, run the ball. I know Denver is third in the NFL against the run, but this is an area opposing teams can have success against this defense. If the Commanders can run the ball, that takes the pressure off Marcus Mariota and limits the Broncos pass rush in the process.

A companion article to this with my answers to Ian’s questions will be linked here when it is available.

Thanks again to Ian St. Clair for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Broncos.