Buffalo Bills trending up/down ahead of Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Buffalo Bills’ 23-19 defeat to the Houston Texans in Week 12 felt like a punch to the gut — it was a wake-up call to a 7-4 contender for their playoff aspirations. Quarterback Josh Allen endured a brutal eight-sack onslaught from Houston’s vaunted No. 1-ranked defense, which racked up 28 pressures and three turnovers, including two interceptions off Allen. The final drive died on a 4th & 6 incompletion, leaving Buffalo’s faithful stunned.

Yet amid the failures, a few glimpses of hope emerged, while glaring issues deserve scrutiny. Here’s my deep dive into the top three Heroes trending up, the top three Head Scratchers trending down, and honorable mentions on both sides — as usual, backed by stats and advanced metrics that justify the individual impacts.

Heroes: The Standouts Who Kept the Flame Alive

In a game where the offense sputtered to a league-worst -0.12 EPA per play (per NFL Next Gen Stats), these performers provided sparks that nearly ignited a comeback. Their efforts highlight resilience against a Texans defense allowing just 16.9 points per game entering the matchup.

1. WR Khalil Shakir

Wide receiver Khalil Shakir emerged as Josh Allen’s most reliable target, and the only one he actually seems to trust, hauling in eight of 10 targets for 110 receiving yards — a season-high that included several clutch conversions on third down. His 82.3 Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade was the highest among Bills skill players, and he generated a league-leading 3.2 yards per route run against Houston’s man coverage schemes. Advanced metrics highlight his efficiency: Shakir’s 94.7 PFF grade on short passes (under 10 yards) underscores his role as a chain-mover in an offense desperate for separation.

With injuries sidelining other receivers, Shakir’s rapport with Allen (now 28 completions on 35 targets this season) positions him as the de facto WR1 moving forward. His stock is skyrocketing each week — expect eight to 10 targets per game in favorable matchups.

2. RB James Cook III

Running back James Cook’s 45-yard scamper for Buffalo’s lone offensive touchdown in the first quarter wasn’t just explosive — it was historic. It pushed him over 1,000 rushing yards for the third straight season, a franchise feat shared only with NFL Hall of Fame running backs O.J. Simpson and Thurman Thomas.

He finished with 116 yards on 17 carries (6.8 YPC), including a 4.2 EPA on that touchdown run alone. Against a Texans front seven that ranks top-five in run-stop win rate (38%), Cook’s 76.5 PFF rushing grade highlighted his burst (top-10 in NFL at 0.18 missed tackles forced per attempt). His vision and elusiveness kept drives alive, making him indispensable to a Bills offense that has struggled on clear passing downs.

On a day when a lot of things didn’t work on offense, Cook certainly was an option to slow down Houston’s pass rush and make things less complicated for Josh Allen and the offensive line.

3. S Cole Bishop

On a night when the secondary started slowly but ended up locking the Texans’ offense up, safety Cole Bishop was the defensive anchor, logging six tackles (3 solo) and flying all over the place. His 78.9 PFF coverage grade was Buffalo’s best among DBs, including a critical third-down stop on wide receiver Nico Collins that forced a punt.

Advanced tracking data reveals Bishop covering 28 yards in the air on his reps, with a 91.2% success rate in run support — that’s elite for a second-year player thrust into a starting role for the first time in his career. Bishop’s instincts shone in zone looks, where he limited Houston to 4.2 yards per target underneath.

As the Bills’ youth movement takes shape, his poise suggests he’s no fluke. Bishop is another player with his stock rising fast — a potential Pro Bowl dark horse by season’s end.

Trending Down: Warning Signs Exposed

The loss amplified longstanding issues, particularly up front, where protection crumbled, and execution faltered.

1. LT Dion Dawkins

Left tackle Dion Dawkins’ veteran lapses were glaring, allowing three pressures and two sacks on 32 pass-blocking reps — a 15.6% rate that ranked dead last among starting left tackles in Week 12, per PFF‘s 39.4 pass-block grade. Next Gen Stats tracking exposed his quit on several reps: he disengaged early on four of Anderson’s rushes, yielding a 2.8-second pocket collapse time when blitzed — making things worse for Allen’s 8-sack nightmare.

His run-blocking held at a middling 62.1 grade, but the killer was a false start on 4th & 1 late in the fourth, putting the Bills in a 4th & 6 scenario and then getting beat again, allowing a Texans defender to get into Allen’s face and rushing his decision and throw.

For an All-Pro-caliber vet in Year 8, that’s inexcusable; his 7.2% penalty rate this season is up from a 4.1% career rate, signaling focus issues. Dawkins’ exposure left Allen scrambling 12 times to his side alone. His stock is down, with leadership questions swirling.

2. GM Brandon Beane

General manager Brandon Beane’s offseason bravado — berating radio hosts with expletives, insisting “we can win a championship with this wide receiver room” despite the obvious lack of top-notch talent in the group —aged like milk after Houston’s secondary showed zero fear of getting beat deep, playing man, and feasting on underneath throws. Then, after refusing to pay the price for a talent like wide receiver Jaylen Waddle at the trade deadline, Beane signed veteran wide receivers Mecole Hardman (now on Injured Reserve) and now Brandin Cooks to the 53-man roster. It’s a desperation move contradicting his April rant and trade-deadline inaction (“no deals came together”).

Metrics mock the irony: Buffalo’s wide receivers rank 24th in separation rate (32.1%), per PlayerProfiler, and Cooks (age 32, 4.8 YPRR career low) won’t fix a group allowing 1.2 EPA/Target in man coverage.

It’s an awful look for the overconfident Beane, making the trust in his vision and capabilities of building a contender around Josh Allen falter as the AFC East’s sixth consecutive title seems like a long shot. Worse yet, even making the playoffs starts to become a question mark.

3. OC Joe Brady

Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s play-calling imploded against Houston’s ferocious pass-rush duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who combined for 4.5 sacks. He leaned heavily on five-man protections (used on 62% of dropbacks, per Next Gen data), which morphed into de facto four-man schemes when the Texans’ spy occupied an interior lineman — exposing Allen to a 28.4% pressure rate, the highest of the season.

Brady never adjusted after halftime, sticking to his incredibly predictable tendencies that yielded just 4.1 yards per play on third downs (bottom-3 league-wide). His early abandonment of the run despite James Cook’s efficiency doomed drives.

Pro Football Focus charts show 14 “bad play calls” leading to negative outcomes, and his approach exposed his offensive linemen to one-on-one matchups against a player of Will Anderson’s caliber (12.5% pressure rate). The result? Eight sacks and 28 pressures, with Brady’s calls yielding a -1.4 EPA on third downs (bottom-third league-wide).

Allen vented frustration over questionable decisions on the sidelines. Protecting the franchise’s $250 million asset shouldn’t come with such reckless exposure. Despite head coach Sean McDermott’s support, his seat has to be getting hotter.

Honorable Mentions

Trending Up:

• Fullback Reggie Gilliam (76.4 PFF grade for lead-blocking on Cook’s big runs)

• Center Connor McGovern (75.2 PFF pass-block grade, one of few O-linemen not whistled for pressures)

• CB Tre’Davious White (5 tackles including 3 solo, 2 passes defended with a 72.1 PFF coverage grade — his season-best)

Trending Down:

• Guard O’Cyrus Torrence (38.9 PFF grade, 2 sacks and 4 pressures allowed amid leverage woes)

• CB Taron Johnson (5 tackles and good run support, but allowed 6 receptions for 85 yards, earning a 48.3 PFF coverage grade — his lowest since Week 5 of 2024. Allowed an opponent’s passer rating of 109.7 and 2.9 yards per route run)

• DT T.J. Sanders (the second-round pick posted zero pressures or run stops in his last two games, has lined up as DE recently, with a dismal 41.7 PFF grade overall and 2.3 yards per carry allowed in those sub-packages — another high Beane draft choice underperforming while the D-line leaks).

Final Thoughts

This loss stings, but the Bills’ resilience — the team still had a real shot at winning in Week 12 late despite all the clear issues evident all game long — hints at a possibility of still competing in a wide-open AFC. Adjustments will be needed, though. Cooks having some gas left in the tank should help — if Brady actually uses him consistently in the offense. Heavy rotations in the wide receivers room don’t inspire confidence. Better/less predictable play-calling can also do wonders for this offense.

On the other side of the ball, McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich seem capable of making the defense play well for stretches. The problem is, what about the other periods of the game? The run defense has been bad for a while now, and it’s been a long time since this unit has put together a complete game. It’s always a good half after an awful one, or the other way around.

Overall, the Bills have a very flawed roster with questionable schemes on both sides of the ball. To make things worse, injuries have piled up. The coaches insist on heavy rotations all over the positional groups, on both sides of the ball, making it difficult for players to know their real roles, build up confidence and chemistry with the few starters who have their roles well established.

Josh Allen has managed to lead Buffalo to a winning record, but it’s clear he hasn’t been comfortable, and the demands with such a poor operation being run around him have affected his play, making him more mistake-prone. Time will tell, but it doesn’t look like this team will be able to overcome its flaws — not without some changes that I don’t believe are possible at this point in the season.

Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!